Opinions - If Marijuana becomes legalized what will take it's place?

[PsychoActivist]

This is something I was just thinking about - a sort of theory if you will. I have never thought about this before nor have I seen or heard this point brought up in discussion, though I may have just missed it. Anyway, I would like to hear your thoughts on it.

Okay, many drug trafficers and dealers rely on the Cannabis black market as a source of income right? On top of that, marijuana is one of the few pretty safe illegal things to do. It almost seems to me that it has it's place as something that is illegal but also relatively safe and if someone decides that they want to try an illegal drug, it's a great "go-to" drug. I do honestly believe that there are and always will be many people who may or may not have done drugs but have considered it because they think "Hmmm... this stuff is illegal, I wanna see what it's all about".

What I'm getting at here is if Marijuana becomes legal, drug trafficers who once moved it may begin to rely on other drugs. Some people only know how to make a living illeagally. This may increase the flow of other substances and it could be possible that another more dangerous drug could take it's place and be obtained just as easily. Imagine if Cocaine use became just as popular as Marijuana is right now. Imagine if just as many people who have tried Marijuana have tried Cocaine. If it was just as easily obtainable.

So basically if Marijuana does get legalized of course something else will become the new "most commonly abused illegal substance" by default, but what if it becomes abused just as much and with the same statistics as Marijuana, thus taking it's place. I think it's fine for Marijuana to be used as much as it is because it's relatively safe. But with some other drugs.... it could get ugly.
I would also like to say that I don't necessarily believe that this will happen. I have always been all for the legalization of Marijuana. This is simply just a thought that popped into my head that I figured I'd share and I would like to see what your thoughts on it are.

Reputation Comments on this post:

	Interesting point of discussion
	Great idea, don't think its been touched on before! Good Job!
	Good question, sparked intelligent discussion.

[Nature Boy]

It's hard to imagine how the black market would replace marijuana. Many dealers probably sell marijuana exclusively as they find no moral reason not to. It's not exactly going to result in death so selling it is like taking a bite out of the system, abusing drug prohibition to make a little guilt-free profit for oneself. Comparable to minor bootlegging or cash-in-hand employment. So I don't think marijuana could be replaced that easily. Effectively, legalizing marijuana would take a massive chunk out of the black market at its benign grassroots. The tax revenue would roll in and a lot of people would turn to marijuana instead of recklessly drinking themselves to death on the only mainstream legal psychoactive there is: booze.

If marijuana were to be replaced, or was close to being replaced, it would have to be replaced by something relatively safe, easy to produce and something profitable. I'm thinking magic mushrooms or the like but their short shelf-life and their significant potency might throw people off. That being said, when mushrooms were legal here in Ireland, they were massively popular. People flocked to buy them, all types of people, not just psychonauts. There were very few problems with them as well until a certain someone spoiled the party.

[aerozeppelin123]

Originally Posted by PsychoActivist

Some people only know how to make a living illeagally.

I often hear things like this, usually in these sort of discussions about what all the criminals currently selling drugs would do if they were legalised. A lot of people argue that they would just find other ways of making money illegally instead of turning to legitimate sources of income. I don't buy this argument though because it is silly to think they want to sell cannabis because it is illegal. It is simply because the black market combined with the drug's popularity allows them to make a lot of easy money - I find it difficult to believe that people would go out of their way dreaming up weird and wonderful illegal ways of making money if there was an easier, legal way of doing so.

If cannabis was legalised, it is possible that there would be increased activity in other black markets (drugs or otherwise), and some criminals would try to seek these methods of income instead. But this can only happen if there is increased demand for these products as a result of cannabis legalisation, which I don't think would be the case - I don't see why cannabis being legal would result in more people wanting to try cocaine for example.

Bear in mind this argument only applies to illegal commodities, not activities such as fraud or theft, as they are not dictated by supply and demand and are therefore harder to predict.

[Sven99]

I realise that you aren't using this as an argument for keeping prohibition - but i have seen it used that way. Which is of course crazy - the idea that we should keep drugs illegal to give criminals job security.

If cannabis, or any other drug was legalised, what we would see is a reduction in the value of the black market. It seems likely that some cannabis salespeople would switch to another product, but I'd imagine alot will leave the industry, and alot of producers will register and start growing it legally. If large numbers do switch to other drugs (especially synthetic drugs) we'd see potentially an increase in supply of other drugs, which could lead to a drop in prices, and increased demand.

I dont think there's another drug with the potential to replace cannabis in the illegal market, at least not in the short term.

[nate81]

supposing that I agree marijuana would be replaced, I would say opium/opiates. For the farmers, it would be pretty easy to find suitable grow conditions and start producing. An indoor grow op could produce year round. The packaging would be small and easy to move around. Production of opium isn't terribly complex, just a few easy steps beyond the farming. The trouble might be getting people interested. Almost anyone can enjoy marijuana, but fewer enjoy opium.

[cannabis-sam]

I think if you look at alcohol prohibition they found the black market disappeared overnight when alcohol became illegal again. I think what sven said is very true that many of the people who are currently dealing or growing would simply turn legit opening cannabis cafes and setting up legit growhouses.

However it is a valid point that many of the criminal gangs who rely on marijuana as part of, but not their sole income may increase their illegal activities to regain some of their losses on alcohol prohibition. Other drugs will still be illegal when cannabis is legalized so you may see a drop in price or increased availability but as another poster stated if there is not an increased demand then there will be nowhere to go with other drugs.

Maybe other crime will increase who knows?

[podge]

I think NatureBoy is on the right track here, if marijuana were legalized swim believes it would mainly just result in a massive financial loss for criminal organizations and other black market traders. Marijuana is a very unique drug in the sense that it is generally known to be relatively safe so people arent too worried about smoking it or selling it. Very few if any other drugs have such a reputation. I dont see anything taking marijuana blackmarket share if it were legalized, it would simply leave a large unfillable gap in the illegal market, and it would create huge legal revenue instead.

[Heretic.Ape.]

Hmm, a very interesting topic and one deserving some contemplation and discussion, but I'll just add a few immediate thoughts.

I think perhaps this idea rests on a certain hyperbole of how many people smoke marijuana just because it's illegal. It is certainly true that many younger people do so but a majority (in my experience) stop once they get out of the rebellious phase, or if they continue it is because they enjoy it and see that it is not harmful.
The same is true of alcohol, which is legal yet vastly more dangerous; leading more towards either addiction or a realization of it's harmfulness and avoidance.

Besides, a great deal of the marijuana trade is widely dispersed--individual grow ops spread out all over rather than a large pyramid going to extreme drug lords in Columbia or Afghanistan or something. The people comprising the marijuana trade don't tend to be the villainous underbelly of organized crime--usually more addictive drugs are the staples of such organizations, marijuana being swept up into the matter by the necessity of smuggling and other consequences of prohibition that just add to the pockets of such organizations by putting marijuana, by association, within their domain.

[Purest]

The only thing I could see becoming slightly more popular would be MDMA, thousands of clubbers pop pills every week, only problem being that dealers would literally be living for the weekend as a large proportion of people taking pills won't be doing them every night. I can't see it filling the gap in the market however, even if the price of MDMA lowered to the level where clubbers are more likely to bomb a quarter gram or so than take a couple of pills. Its a market that focuses more on a specific scene, even if half the concert goers in the country were taking MDMA every night (which they wouldn't), it'd barely compare to the thousands that smoke pot on a regular/daily basis.
That's just my opinion however, I guess if pot were ever legalised we'd see the true effect on the state of crime and the drug trade. It's all well and good comparing to what happened with the prohibition of alcohol last century, but we never know exactly what might happen.

[PsychoActivist]

Thanks for all your responses so far. Sometimes these weird ass ideas just pop into my head and I just begin thinking, and thinking about them. It's always great to here others opinions and views on them so that I can see it from other perspectives as well and maybe come to a conclusion on what I actually believe may happen here.

I'm also glad that none of you have taken this the wrong way either. As I said before I have always been all for the legalization of Marijuana. The funny thing is SWIPA doesn't even smoke it. It makes him paranoid. But he certainly sees it as a much better alternative than say, Alcohol, for instance.

Thanks again for the great responses so far guys!

[dadrone]

Originally Posted by PsychoActivist

Thanks for all your responses so far. Sometimes these weird ass ideas just pop into my head and I just begin thinking, and thinking about them. It's always great to here others opinions and views on them so that I can see it from other perspectives as well and maybe come to a conclusion on what I actually believe may happen here.

I'm also glad that none of you have taken this the wrong way either. As I said before I have always been all for the legalization of Marijuana. The funny thing is SWIPA doesn't even smoke it. It makes him paranoid. But he certainly sees it as a much better alternative than say, Alcohol, for instance.

Thanks again for the great responses so far guys!

I don't think any drug would replace marijuana on the 1:1. One reason is that many of the other *possible* replacements, let's say cocaine, will land a dealer in prison for a lot longer whereas even if you get caught SELLING marijuana you probably can avoid jail time.

[jon-q]

I don’t actually think the black market trade in marijuana will ever fully disappear. Lets assume cannabis were to become legal, you can be sure that the governments who do so will put ridiculously high tax regulations on it, just like they do with alcohol and tobacco, would it not then follow that an industry in TAX-free hash opens up, That’s one possibility?

Another thought that crossed my mind, to what level would they legalise cannabis? I doubt very much they’d follow the Dutch “No holds barred” example, a more cleansed “We are going to protect you” type approach, seems far more likely, regulating THC content? Even banning certain “Super Skunk” strains wouldn’t be beyond our caring politicians, so maybe there would be an illegal market in the higher strength strains of marijuana.
Of course this is all hypothetical and sadly I can’t see full legalisation ever happening, maybe medically prescribed marijuana and relaxing of laws is the best we can hope for....At least for now anyway.
Latters Q

[dadrone]

Originally Posted by jon-q

I don’t actually think the black market trade in marijuana will ever fully disappear. Lets assume cannabis were to become legal, you can be sure that the governments who do so will put ridiculously high tax regulations on it, just like they do with alcohol and tobacco, would it not then follow that an industry in TAX-free hash opens up, That’s one possibility?

Another thought that crossed my mind, to what level would they legalise cannabis? I doubt very much they’d follow the Dutch “No holds barred” example, a more cleansed “We are going to protect you” type approach, seems far more likely, regulating THC content? Even banning certain “Super Skunk” strains wouldn’t be beyond our caring politicians, so maybe there would be an illegal market in the higher strength strains of marijuana.
Of course this is all hypothetical and sadly I can’t see full legalisation ever happening, maybe medically prescribed marijuana and relaxing of laws is the best we can hope for....At least for now anyway.
Latters Q

As long as they legalize something better than bammer, brick weed, etc - SWIM would never be tempted to break the law just for a better strain.

[nuffsaid420]

Swim was having this very discussion with his buddy the other day. If you realize that most of the USofA gets its cannabis from California now rather than outside the US, and the fact that it is basically legalized in Cali already, decriminalized at least. There are a lot of farmers already producing large greenhouse crops (+200lb) out here, right now California patients can get a "grow license" when they get their cannabis card for free. Swim was mentioning that just taxing those permits would solve a lot of the problems we have in state and out, but totatlly legalizing it.....
Legalizing the herb would be difficult at first for the gov't, unless they somehow got some production facilities up first and were able to grow a lot more cannabis than was on the market at the time. They would have to be in with some corporation, to get marketing and everything out.
(You have to remember our blackmarket for cannabis is large, and BTW cannabis is not hard to grow, it's called "weed" for christ sake!)
Swim was thinking this because how else would they get control of the market without first having some kind of incentive for everyone out there to buy their taxed cannabis instead of their friends or even growing their own?


Swim told me that if cannabis is Legalized, small farmers would be the first to go out of buisness, then cannabis would become corporatized.
I don't think there would be a so-called "replacement", there is no other drug that is illegal that carries the same amount of demand as cannabis does(if so show me source )

Good quesiton. Namaste

[Sven99]

Originally Posted by jon-q

I don’t actually think the black market trade in marijuana will ever fully disappear. Lets assume cannabis were to become legal, you can be sure that the governments who do so will put ridiculously high tax regulations on it, just like they do with alcohol and tobacco, would it not then follow that an industry in TAX-free hash opens up, That’s one possibility?

If it did happen, it would be a much smaller market, and the cannabis would be much less than it costs now.

Even taxed like spirits, cannabis would cost less in a regulated system than it does now. And an illegal market could only exist if it was charging significantly less than the cost of the legal stuff. Considering the time and effort to grow cannabis, there likely wouldn't be enough profit in it for it to be worthwile.

Plus, most users would favour going to the shop to buy their cannabis at known strengths.

Compare it to the alcohol situation at the moment. There will always be people who grow their own cannabis, just like there will be people who brew their own alcohol - to save money and for the enjoyment of it. But there are only very people who brew alcohol to sell, as even with the savings on tax, its not that profitable when you factor in the lengths you need to go to protect your business from the law, and the lack of legal protection. Obviously some people are making moonshine for profit - but its very rare.

[DopinDan]

If cannabis we to be "corporatized", and taxed, it would have to be produced cheap enough, to make it not worth someones while to grow it themselves. Or they would have to make it illegal to grow ones own, like making moonshine is illegal, due to the governments ravenous appetite for taxes.

It is opinion that this stumbling block, plus some powerful organizations enjoy financial benefit from prohibition, are what is stopping decriminalization from happening today.

Now since this entire reply was off topic, thoughts are that no drug would completely take marijuana's place.

[Scag]

imagine cocaine use becoming as popular as marijuana?

its called the 80s my man haha.

nothing will take marijuana's place. saying that because marijuana is now legal, that peoples opinions of other substances will change is fool hardy.

most people are content with pot, and if pot is legals who's to say more people would not stop taking their illicit substances to enjoy a legal high. they may even start up ganja bars, not to mention tourism would sky rocket haha.

[Lethargy]

We find the discussion interesting largely because of the implications given on the social role of marijuana in modern times. As mentioned, most governments prohibit its use and yet a great deal of people, especially younger people, use it every year. It provides a nice, safe (relatively) way for folk to flirt with "drugs" and breaking the law. Every year though it seems less and less "counterculture" and more a part of life in a modern country. We can't think of anything that would serve quite the same purpose.

We fear legalization because of a rather large factor... imagine "Marlboro Greens", say. What sort of additives would the big corps put into a rather benign plant in order to increase addictiveness and/or profit margin? Obviously we have additive free tobacco, so a market for additive free cannabis would exist too, but for the average smoker in our imaginary world...

It would take at least some years before the big corps got up and running and the hobbyists would still probably produce some quality cannabis, but from a dealing standpoint we doubt that many folks would bother to use the black market if they could just hop down to the corner store and buy some prepackaged product.